{"id":1994,"date":"2026-02-13T13:30:33","date_gmt":"2026-02-13T13:30:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/?p=1994"},"modified":"2026-02-13T13:33:22","modified_gmt":"2026-02-13T13:33:22","slug":"borsada-ne-alacaginizi-degil-ne-kadar-alacaginizi-hesaplayin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/2026\/02\/13\/borsada-ne-alacaginizi-degil-ne-kadar-alacaginizi-hesaplayin\/","title":{"rendered":"Borsada Ne Alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 De\u011fil, Ne Kadar Alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 Hesaplay\u0131n"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Borsada Ne Alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 De\u011fil, Ne Kadar Alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 Hesaplay\u0131n<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Borsada \u00e7o\u011fu yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 “Hangi hisseyi almal\u0131y\u0131m?” sorusuna yan\u0131t ararken batar. Oysa as\u0131l soru \u015fudur: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

“C\u00fczdan\u0131m\u0131n y\u00fczde ka\u00e7\u0131yla bu hisseye girmeliyim?”<\/strong> \u0130\u015fte burada devreye profesyonel kumarbazlar\u0131n ve hedge fon y\u00f6neticilerinin (Warren Buffett dahil) kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 Kelly Kriteri<\/strong> giriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

1. Kasa Y\u00f6netimi Neden Teknik Analizden Daha \u00d6nemlidir?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en iyi teknik analizcisi olsan\u0131z bile, e\u011fer her i\u015fleme kasan\u0131z\u0131n tamam\u0131yla giriyorsan\u0131z, art arda gelecek 3 hatal\u0131 i\u015flemde sermayenizin %50\u2019sini kaybedersiniz. Kelly Kriteri, matematiksel olarak “iflas etme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131ra indiren” ideal al\u0131m miktar\u0131n\u0131 belirler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Kelly Form\u00fcl\u00fc Nedir?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Form\u00fcl karma\u015f\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de mant\u0131\u011f\u0131 basittir:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

K=W\u2212R1\u2212W\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • K:<\/strong> Kasandaki paran\u0131n y\u00fczde ka\u00e7\u0131yla bu hisseyi almal\u0131s\u0131n?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • W:<\/strong> Kazanma ihtimalin (\u00d6rne\u011fin son 10 i\u015fleminin 6’s\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131ysa %60).<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • R:<\/strong> Kazan\u00e7\/Kay\u0131p oran\u0131 (Hedefledi\u011fin k\u00e2r, g\u00f6ze ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n zarar\u0131n ka\u00e7 kat\u0131?).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    3. “Duygusal Al\u0131m” Yerine “Matematiksel Al\u0131m”<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    \u00d6rne\u011fin OSTIM analizinde 3,08 deste\u011fine g\u00fcvendiniz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • Kazanma ihtimalinizi %70 g\u00f6r\u00fcyorsan\u0131z,<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Hedefledi\u011finiz k\u00e2r (3,30), durduraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z zarar\u0131n (3,05) 3 kat\u0131ysa,<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Kelly Kriteri size “Kasan\u0131n %60’\u0131yla gir” diyebilir. Ancak stratejinize g\u00fcveniniz %50 ise bu oran %10’a d\u00fc\u015fer.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      4. Neden Kimse Bunu Kullanm\u0131yor?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

      \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc insanlar borsay\u0131 bir “zengin olma makinesi” olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Kelly Kriteri ise borsay\u0131 bir “olas\u0131l\u0131k y\u00f6netimi”<\/strong> olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcr. Bu y\u00f6ntem sizi bir gecede zengin etmez ama borsa \u00e7\u00f6kerken bile ayakta kalman\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Borsada Ne Alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 De\u011fil, Ne Kadar Alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 Hesaplay\u0131n Borsada \u00e7o\u011fu yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 “Hangi hisseyi almal\u0131y\u0131m?” sorusuna yan\u0131t ararken batar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1995,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"wds_primary_category":185,"footnotes":""},"categories":[185,191,186],"tags":[200,301,299,300],"class_list":["post-1994","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-borsa-psikolojisi","category-gunluk-trader-notlari","category-trader-psikolojisi","tag-borsa","tag-kelly-kriteri-nedir","tag-para-yonetimi","tag-risk-yonetimi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1994","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1994"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1994\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1997,"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1994\/revisions\/1997"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1995"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1994"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1994"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1994"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}