{"id":2314,"date":"2026-03-10T13:09:10","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T13:09:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/?p=2314"},"modified":"2026-03-15T17:32:01","modified_gmt":"2026-03-15T17:32:01","slug":"hurst-cycle-dongu-analizi-giris","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/10\/hurst-cycle-dongu-analizi-giris\/","title":{"rendered":"Hurst Cycle – D\u00f6ng\u00fc Analizi Giri\u015f"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u00c7o\u011fu yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 ekrana bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sadece y\u00fckselen veya d\u00fc\u015fen mumlar g\u00f6r\u00fcr. Baz\u0131lar\u0131 destek ve diren\u00e7leri kovalar, baz\u0131lar\u0131 ise haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na hapsolur. Ancak ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir trade stratejisinin eksik olan dev bir par\u00e7as\u0131 vard\u0131r: Zaman.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finansal piyasalar, t\u0131pk\u0131 mevsimler veya okyanus gelgitleri gibi belirli bir ritimle hareket eder. J.M. Hurst ad\u0131nda bir m\u00fchendisin 1970\u2019lerde temellerini att\u0131\u011f\u0131 “D\u00f6ng\u00fc Analizi”, bize fiyat\u0131n sadece nereye<\/em> gidece\u011fini de\u011fil, ne zaman<\/em> d\u00f6nece\u011fini s\u00f6yler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Piyasan\u0131n Kalp At\u0131\u015f\u0131: D\u00f6ng\u00fc Nedir?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Bir d\u00f6ng\u00fc, fiyat\u0131n bir dipten ba\u015flay\u0131p tepe yapmas\u0131 ve tekrar bir sonraki dibe ula\u015fmas\u0131 s\u00fcrecidir. Grafton\u2019\u0131n modern yorumuyla bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 rastgele bir sal\u0131n\u0131m de\u011fil, fiziksel bir kurald\u0131r. Bir d\u00f6ng\u00fcy\u00fc anlamak i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7 temel kavram\u0131 bilmemiz gerekir:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Periyot:<\/strong> \u0130ki dip aras\u0131ndaki zaman (\u00d6rn: 80 g\u00fcn).<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Genlik:<\/strong> D\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn ne kadar \u015fiddetli oldu\u011fu (Fiyat\u0131n ne kadar y\u00fckseldi\u011fi).<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Faz:<\/strong> D\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn o an neresinde oldu\u011fumuz (Y\u00fckseli\u015f a\u015famas\u0131nda m\u0131y\u0131z, yoksa dibe mi gidiyoruz?).<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Hurst D\u00f6ng\u00fc Analizinin 3 Alt\u0131n Kural\u0131<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Okuyucular\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n piyasaya bak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirecek olan Hurst prensiplerinden en kritik \u00fc\u00e7 tanesini \u015f\u00f6yle \u00f6zetleyebiliriz:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    1. Nedensellik Prensibi<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

    Piyasadaki fiyat hareketleri bir dizi farkl\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn toplam\u0131ndan olu\u015fur. T\u0131pk\u0131 bir orkestradaki farkl\u0131 enstr\u00fcmanlar\u0131n (keman, davul, fl\u00fct) birle\u015ferek tek bir senfoni olu\u015fturmas\u0131 gibi; k\u0131sa, orta ve uzun vadeli d\u00f6ng\u00fcler birle\u015ferek g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz o karma\u015f\u0131k grafi\u011fi olu\u015fturur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    2. Senkronizasyon (Diplerin G\u00fcc\u00fc)<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

    D\u00f6ng\u00fclerin en \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6zelli\u011fi, diplerinin genellikle birbirine yak\u0131n zamanlarda olu\u015fmas\u0131d\u0131r. K\u0131sa vadeli bir d\u00f6ng\u00fc dip yaparken, orta vadeli bir d\u00f6ng\u00fc de ona e\u015flik ediyorsa, i\u015fte o zaman borsada “f\u0131rsat” dedi\u011fimiz o g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fler ba\u015flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    3. Harmoniklik<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

    D\u00f6ng\u00fcler birbirinin tam katlar\u0131 olma e\u011filimindedir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, 40 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn i\u00e7inde iki adet 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00f6ng\u00fc bulunur. Bu hiyerar\u015fiyi anlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck dalgalanmalar\u0131n asl\u0131nda hangi b\u00fcy\u00fck f\u0131rt\u0131nan\u0131n par\u00e7as\u0131 oldu\u011funu \u00e7\u00f6zmeye ba\u015flars\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Neden Borsa \u0130stanbul\u2019da (BIST) D\u00f6ng\u00fc Bakmal\u0131y\u0131z?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    BIST gibi geli\u015fmekte olan piyasalar, likidite ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 psikolojisi nedeniyle d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel hareketlere \u00e7ok uygundur. Bir hisse senedi teknik olarak ucuz olabilir, ancak d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc hen\u00fcz “dip” yapmad\u0131ysa, o ka\u011f\u0131t aylarca bekletebilir. D\u00f6ng\u00fc analizi size “do\u011fru hissede, yanl\u0131\u015f zamanda” olmaktan kurtar\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Sonu\u00e7: Bir Sonraki Ad\u0131m<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Bu yaz\u0131 dizisinin ilk b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde, piyasan\u0131n rastgele bir kaos de\u011fil, \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclebilir bir ritim oldu\u011funu kabul ettik. Ancak bu d\u00f6ng\u00fcleri \u00e7\u0131plak g\u00f6zle g\u00f6rmek zordur. Bir sonraki yaz\u0131m\u0131zda, grafikteki karma\u015fay\u0131 b\u0131\u00e7ak gibi kesen ve trendin y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc matematiksel olarak onaylayan VTL (Ge\u00e7erli Trend \u00c7izgileri)<\/strong> kavram\u0131na girece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Unutmay\u0131n:<\/strong> Fiyat ger\u00e7ektir, ama zaman her \u015feydir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n\n\n\n

    Edit\u00f6r Notu:<\/strong> Bu i\u00e7eri\u011fin baz\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131mlar\u0131 Christopher Grafton\u2019\u0131n “Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis” eserindeki teknik yakla\u015f\u0131mlardan esinlenerek borsaoku.com i\u00e7in \u00f6zg\u00fcnle\u015ftirilmi\u015ftir.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    \u00c7o\u011fu yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 ekrana bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sadece y\u00fckselen veya d\u00fc\u015fen mumlar g\u00f6r\u00fcr. Baz\u0131lar\u0131 destek ve diren\u00e7leri kovalar, baz\u0131lar\u0131 ise haber<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2315,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"wds_primary_category":294,"footnotes":""},"categories":[294,293],"tags":[384,383],"class_list":["post-2314","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-borsa-okulu","category-indikatorler-teknikanaliz","tag-dongu-analizi","tag-hurst-cycle"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2314","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2314"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2314\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2316,"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2314\/revisions\/2316"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2315"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2314"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2314"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2314"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}