Bir grafi\u011fi a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda ka\u00e7 farkl\u0131 trend \u00e7izgisi \u00e7izebilirsiniz? Muhtemelen onlarca. Peki, hangisinin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ger\u00e7ekten “oyunun de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi” anlam\u0131na gelir? Klasik teknik analizde bu sorunun cevab\u0131 genellikle ki\u015fiden ki\u015fiye de\u011fi\u015fir. Ancak Hurst Analizi’nde cevab\u0131 matematik verir: VTL (Valid Trendline).<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Hurst\u2019e g\u00f6re bir trend \u00e7izgisi, sadece iki rastgele tepenin birle\u015fimi de\u011fildir. Bir VTL, belirli bir d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn<\/strong> s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izen bir bariyerdir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u00d6rne\u011fin, 80 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn diplerini birle\u015ftiren bir VTL \u00e7izdiyseniz, bu \u00e7izgi k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sadece fiyat d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f olmaz; asl\u0131nda piyasa size \u015funu f\u0131s\u0131ldar: “\u015eu an 80 g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00f6ng\u00fcden daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u00f6ng\u00fc (\u00f6rne\u011fin 20 haftal\u0131k) zirvesini yapt\u0131 ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir bask\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131.”<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Hurst ve Grafton\u2019\u0131n sisteminde bir VTL rastgele \u00e7izilemez. \u0130\u015fte temel kurallar:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Klasik trend \u00e7izgileri fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131na ya da \u00fcst\u00fcne en \u00e7ok temas eden yerlerden \u00e7izilir. VTL ise zaman\u0131<\/strong> baz al\u0131r. E\u011fer 20 haftal\u0131k bir d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn bitti\u011fini g\u00f6rmek istiyorsan\u0131z, o d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn i\u00e7indeki “k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck karde\u015f” olan 80 g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn tepelerini birle\u015ftirmeniz gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bu sayede, piyasadaki “sahte k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mlar\u0131” (bull trap\/bear trap) eleme \u015fans\u0131n\u0131z olur. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc VTL, sadece fiyat\u0131n bir \u00e7izgiyi ge\u00e7mesi de\u011fil, bir zaman d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn enerjisini t\u00fcketmesidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n BIST 100\u2019de bazen fiyat h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015ferken bir anda tepki al\u0131m\u0131 gelir. Klasik bir trend \u00e7izgisi \u00e7izenler “diren\u00e7 k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131” diye hemen oyuna girebilir. Ancak Hurst analizinde, e\u011fer o y\u00fckseli\u015f hen\u00fcz ilgili d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn VTL hatt\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 k\u0131rmam\u0131\u015fsa, bu sadece ge\u00e7ici bir tepkidir. Ger\u00e7ek d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in VTL\u2019nin \u00fczerinde bir kapan\u0131\u015f beklenir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n VTL bize “Oyunun y\u00f6n\u00fc de\u011fi\u015fti mi?”<\/strong> sorusunun cevab\u0131n\u0131 verir. Ancak VTL bir “onay” mekanizmas\u0131d\u0131r, yani biraz geriden gelir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n “Peki, fiyat\u0131n nereye gidece\u011fini ve ne zaman d\u00f6nece\u011fini \u00f6nceden, hen\u00fcz d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ba\u015flamadan tahmin edebilir miyiz?”<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u0130\u015fte bu sorunun cevab\u0131, yaz\u0131 dizimizin 3. b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde: FLD (Future Line of Demarcation) \u2013 Fiyat\u0131n Gelecekteki G\u00f6lgesi.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Edit\u00f6r Notu:<\/strong> VTL kullan\u0131m\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131y\u0131 “erken \u00f6ten horoz” olmaktan kurtar\u0131r. Onayl\u0131 ve matematiksel bir trend takibi sa\u011flar.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" B\u00f6l\u00fcm 2: Rastgele \u00c7izgilerden Kurtulun \u2013 VTL ile Ger\u00e7ek Trendi Yakalamak Bir grafi\u011fi a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda ka\u00e7 farkl\u0131 trend \u00e7izgisi<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2318,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"wds_primary_category":294,"footnotes":""},"categories":[294],"tags":[313,200,386,213,208,387,385],"class_list":["post-2317","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-borsa-okulu","tag-borsaoku","tag-borsa","tag-gercek-trendi-yakalamak","tag-indikator","tag-teknik-analiz","tag-valid-trendline","tag-vtl"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2317","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2317"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2317\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2319,"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2317\/revisions\/2319"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2318"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2317"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2317"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.borsaoku.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2317"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}VTL Nedir? Her \u00c7izgi Bir “S\u00f6zle\u015fme”dir<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
VTL \u00c7izmenin Alt\u0131n Kurallar\u0131<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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Neden “Ge\u00e7erli” (Valid) Diyoruz?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Borsa \u0130stanbul \u00d6rne\u011fiyle D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
2. B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn \u00d6zeti ve Bir Sonraki Ad\u0131m<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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